Prediction vs Outcome: Market vs Polling Aggregation


The picture above represents what the market believes to be the outcome for March 15.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, all by a strong margin. The market has chosen Cruz for Missouri, and Kasich for Ohio.

rcp avg

The picture above represents what the polling mechanisms have aggregated.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, North Carolina, and probably Illinois. Again, Kasich for Ohio, but data is not sufficient to make a call on Missouri.

The Outcome

Assuming that the electronic voting platforms are functioning accurately, and not shaving votes from Donald Trump, then both sets of data suggest that:

Donald Trump ‘ought’ to win Florida and North Carolina by a strong margin. There is a maximum of 171 delegates available. Florida is winner-take-all, North Carolina is proportional. The data is not as strong on Illinois, however, he will likely win, and net a potential maximum of 69 delegates. Missouri is unknown, with a favoring of Cruz by the market. Delegates allocate WTA if a 50% threshold is obtained. Otherwise 5 delegates per district and 9 for the leader. 52 delegates are available. Finally, Kasich is favored to win Ohio, with a maximum potential of 66 delegates available.


I believe Donald will be the main benefactor from today’s events, however, a clean sweep is looking unlikely, therefore, the potential for a brokered convention is looking very likely. If this is the case, then the Republican National Committee will¬† probably re-write the rules , and steal the election from Trump. Trump needs to be the victor of all 5 states, and take every single delegate. If this were to happen, then Donald would certainly become the Republican nominee for the general election, whether the establishment likes it or not.

Donald 3, Kasich 1, Cruz 1. Although I’m very interested to discover how the delegates will be allocated, and if the winner truly takes all. This is it folks! Standby for action!

UPDATE: Kasich wins Ohio, Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Illinois.


Brokered Conventions and the RNC

Delegate Allocation

As of March 14th, 2016, the majority of Republican delegates will be allocated in ‘winner-take-all’ fashion. Prior to this date, the majority were allocated in a proportional system (however, state laws do vary). This will be advantageous for the front-runners, namely, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Rule 40(b)

A candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination. As of March 7th, Donald Trump has five states with majority delegate support, Ted Cruz has three.

Can Trump take Florida and Ohio?

The republican establishment is hell-bent on stopping the ‘Trump-train’. While anti-Trump advertising is on full-throttle, I’m unsure what effect it is having on people already tired of pre-packaged, establishment candidates. Perhaps the electronic voting system has been programmed to shave votes off Trump. I guess that is another matter. For Trump, a victory in Florida and Ohio would make his bid for nomination virtually guaranteed. A win in Florida is likely, and I’d be seriously dubious if he were to lose that state to Rubio. Ohio is looking more difficult, and Kasich may win his home state. Nevertheless, after March 14th, providing his winning momentum continues, Trump should start amassing delegates in short order. It will be a tight race, and ultimately a brokered convention is possible.

Will Trump score a home-run on March 15th?

Here is how the market believes it will go down on



The Race to the Delegate Finish Line

To anyone following the Republican primaries, it is obvious that the 1,237 delegate threshold is looking out of reach to every candidate, except Donald Trump. That said, it is not a given that he will reach the threshold. Additionally, by June 7th, Trump will have undoubtedly exceeded the eight state majority delegate support requirement (rule 40b) to be eligible for nomination. However, Ted Cruz may have reached the threshold too. In this case, a brokered convention would take place, unless the Republican National Committee changes the rules before June 7th. All things considered equal, assuming the RNC don’t make any changes, a Donald Trump and Ted Cruz delegate showdown is possible. Hell, Kasich may still be running. Anyway, if delegates favor Cruz, even if Donald has the majority of popular votes, Cruz would take the nomination for the Republicans. In this scenario, Donald could run as an independent.



Dirty Tricks and Politics

The Duplicitous Democrats

Hillary R. Clinton is the Democratic front-runner, preferred candidate for the super-delegates, and apparently the top choice among older women, especially black women. Who would of thought? She also used her home computer to conduct government business as the Secretary of State. It might be of interest to note that 22 of the 2,115 emails that were retroactively classified, are Top Secret. Apparently this doesn’t matter if you are an older woman. She still has a vagina, she is still old, and that resonates with you. She cares about the minorities. She cares about the disenfranchised, right? Make sure you vote for Hillary because she is a woman and a mother!

Bernie Sanders, the dinosaur-activist, hell-bent on wealth redistribution and appealing to the ‘hopeless-generation’. He’ll makes things ‘fair’ again! He’ll increase taxes on those evil 1%, make ‘free’ education, virtually double the minimum wage, enforce pay parity for women, force employers to give more holidays etc. He loves taxes, wealth and income distribution, and above all, debt. He’ll expand the money supply, bankrupt businesses, create ‘free’ stuff, and step by step, make everybody equal. Equally poor, equally rich, hell it doesn’t matter anymore. Feeling the Bern!

The Repugnant Republicans

Marco Rubio, the quintessential Republican establishment puppet. There isn’t a hoop he won’t jump through. Whether or not he was a raging homosexual in college, apparently doesn’t matter to the conservative party. They will look beyond his checkered past, so long as he keeps Trump from winning. Although, how long Rubio will stay in the race will probably depend on him winning his home state of Florida.

Ted Cruz, the smooth talking Texan, fiercely fighting to be the next POTUS. He’s been waiting for power and control, and he’s coming second. Who knows what Cruz would accomplish as the next POTUS. I’m assuming more of the same. No real change. Nothing substantial. I can’t imagine Goldman Sachs fearing the election of Cruz.

Donald Trump, the fearless alpha-male, is upsetting the establishment with his ‘say-whatever-I-want’ style of debate. The self-funding candidate, doesn’t need establishment money and therefore is not beholden to them. Running off pure charisma and his brash demeanor, the Donald is looking to do what no other candidate is bringing to the party. Structural change to the U.S economy! Change, but not the Bernie ‘free-stuff-for-everyone-expand-money-supply-indefinitely’ Sanders, type of change. No, sir! Donald actually has intrinsic knowledge of running a business, trade, tax loopholes, and negotiations. Donald is not perfect, however, I have confidence in him far in excess of the other outsider, Bernie Sanders.¬† Here is a link to the tax reform Donald has in mind.


  1. Voter shaving and other dirty tricks
  2. Hillary winning the Democratic nomination
  3. A brokered convention sidelining Donald Trump, promoting Ted Cruz for Republican nomination
  4. Hillary wins the general election and becomes the next POTUS

All four of the above are bad, although, the brokered convention ruling out Donald J. Trump, and Hillary winning the general election is the final piece of straw on the camel’s back. We should make sure these terrible outcomes don’t happen.

If you are a Bernie Sanders supporter, and he loses the Democratic nomination, make sure you vote Trump. If you are a Rubio supporter, and he quits the race, vote Trump.

America is in a very precarious financial situation. The economy is dilapidated. It is being extracted by trade, tax, monetary policy, and military misadventures. It needs to stop. It is time to set aside petty differences on minor issues, and join forces against the ‘evil-empire’, rally alongside Donald Trump, and fight the good fight!