Prediction vs Outcome: Market vs Polling Aggregation

predictit

The picture above represents what the market believes to be the outcome for March 15.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, all by a strong margin. The market has chosen Cruz for Missouri, and Kasich for Ohio.

rcp avg

The picture above represents what the polling mechanisms have aggregated.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, North Carolina, and probably Illinois. Again, Kasich for Ohio, but data is not sufficient to make a call on Missouri.

The Outcome

Assuming that the electronic voting platforms are functioning accurately, and not shaving votes from Donald Trump, then both sets of data suggest that:

Donald Trump ‘ought’ to win Florida and North Carolina by a strong margin. There is a maximum of 171 delegates available. Florida is winner-take-all, North Carolina is proportional. The data is not as strong on Illinois, however, he will likely win, and net a potential maximum of 69 delegates. Missouri is unknown, with a favoring of Cruz by the market. Delegates allocate WTA if a 50% threshold is obtained. Otherwise 5 delegates per district and 9 for the leader. 52 delegates are available. Finally, Kasich is favored to win Ohio, with a maximum potential of 66 delegates available.

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I believe Donald will be the main benefactor from today’s events, however, a clean sweep is looking unlikely, therefore, the potential for a brokered convention is looking very likely. If this is the case, then the Republican National Committee will  probably re-write the rules , and steal the election from Trump. Trump needs to be the victor of all 5 states, and take every single delegate. If this were to happen, then Donald would certainly become the Republican nominee for the general election, whether the establishment likes it or not.

Donald 3, Kasich 1, Cruz 1. Although I’m very interested to discover how the delegates will be allocated, and if the winner truly takes all. This is it folks! Standby for action!

UPDATE: Kasich wins Ohio, Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Illinois.

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Brokered Conventions and the RNC

Delegate Allocation

As of March 14th, 2016, the majority of Republican delegates will be allocated in ‘winner-take-all’ fashion. Prior to this date, the majority were allocated in a proportional system (however, state laws do vary). This will be advantageous for the front-runners, namely, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Rule 40(b)

A candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination. As of March 7th, Donald Trump has five states with majority delegate support, Ted Cruz has three.

Can Trump take Florida and Ohio?

The republican establishment is hell-bent on stopping the ‘Trump-train’. While anti-Trump advertising is on full-throttle, I’m unsure what effect it is having on people already tired of pre-packaged, establishment candidates. Perhaps the electronic voting system has been programmed to shave votes off Trump. I guess that is another matter. For Trump, a victory in Florida and Ohio would make his bid for nomination virtually guaranteed. A win in Florida is likely, and I’d be seriously dubious if he were to lose that state to Rubio. Ohio is looking more difficult, and Kasich may win his home state. Nevertheless, after March 14th, providing his winning momentum continues, Trump should start amassing delegates in short order. It will be a tight race, and ultimately a brokered convention is possible.

Will Trump score a home-run on March 15th?

Here is how the market believes it will go down on predictit.org

florida

ohio

The Race to the Delegate Finish Line

To anyone following the Republican primaries, it is obvious that the 1,237 delegate threshold is looking out of reach to every candidate, except Donald Trump. That said, it is not a given that he will reach the threshold. Additionally, by June 7th, Trump will have undoubtedly exceeded the eight state majority delegate support requirement (rule 40b) to be eligible for nomination. However, Ted Cruz may have reached the threshold too. In this case, a brokered convention would take place, unless the Republican National Committee changes the rules before June 7th. All things considered equal, assuming the RNC don’t make any changes, a Donald Trump and Ted Cruz delegate showdown is possible. Hell, Kasich may still be running. Anyway, if delegates favor Cruz, even if Donald has the majority of popular votes, Cruz would take the nomination for the Republicans. In this scenario, Donald could run as an independent.

 

 

POLITICKING IN THE U.S.A

ARE AMERICANS GLUTTONS FOR PUNISHMENT, OR CAN THEY JUST NOT SEE THEY HAVE ELECTED FOX AFTER FOX INTO THE HEN-HOUSE?

If Clinton is the next POTUS, or Sanders for that matter, the U.S.A will have been dealt another massive blow. Honestly, Rubio and Cruz don’t inspire me either.

Change is so strongly desired. But what kind of change? Obama’s “Hope” campaign got him elected, twice, unbelievably, but the charming Obama illusion has substantially diminished. I’m almost certain Sanders would be a financial hazard. He would likely rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic. In my opinion, the great deleveraging of the 21st century is ultimately unstoppable. The house of cards will collapse, but under which administration? To be perfectly frank, why the hell would one want a fucking socialist as the next POTUS, and in such financially unstable times? To me, Trump is looking like the only viable outsider not beholden to an entrenched oligarchy.

The financials of the U.S are horrible. Both the Republicans and Democrats have been co-opted, and both have kicked the can down the road. An administration will inherit an epic financial meltdown eventually. I’d choose Trump to preside over a financial catastrophe over Sanders everyday of the year. Sanders is a tax and spend guy. He might talk a good game to the impressionable youth, but he will not improve the United States balance sheet. He will expand debt levels. He is a wealth distributor, not a wealth creator. Imagine student loans under a Sanders administration! Below is a snapshot of student loan expansion under the Obama administration.

INTERESTING FACT: Student loans are considered an asset.

consumercredit

Obama administration expanding government assets. Wait! Assets?

That’s right. It is considered an asset. Here is a link to the Government Accountability Office and an evaluation of the US GOV asset position.

assets

Snapshots of the Democratic and Republican nomination delegate count as of 29/2/16
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It appears Hillary has the establishment Democratic super-delegate support by a landslide.

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Trump off to an impressive start.

A small class of parasitical, rent-seeking oligarchs, wield immense influence upon these activities. Is there a branch of government that hasn’t been co-opted? Good luck, America! Will the despondent, apathetic, indifferent, docile masses finally stand up to the bloated, venal, incoherent bureaucrats that have extracted them so insidiously over the decades, or will a fucking Hillary Clinton type be the next face for the next phase of American destruction?

Finally, here is a link to an inspiring rant by Dylan Radigan on MSNBC

Dylan Radigan – “There is not a single politician who has stood up to deal with this!” Until now. His name is Donald Trump. Vote for him.

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Politics and Science: Truly the Strangest of Bedfellows

“The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule.” H. L. Mencken

‘Climate change’ is not new to the biosphere, however, sociopolitical vilification of ‘climate change’ is. ‘Climate change’ is an oxymoron, something akin to ‘cold ice’. Tersely put, Earth’s climate seeks equilibrium through various feedback mechanisms, and transitions between glacial periods (ice ages) and interglacial periods (between ice ages). The past decamillenium occurred in the Holocene era, which was preceded by the Pleistocene era (the last major ice age). Compared to the Pleistocene, the Holocene has been a summer holiday, with temperature changes being comparatively minor and stable. Humans have thrived in this era of comparative warmth. Current trends are perfectly within the Holocene range, with the last major shift occurring when the previous great ice age subsided and ushered in a new trend of relatively stable and interglacial climate change.

There are many factors influencing the climate, predominantly natural, and to some extent, anthropogenic. Recently, catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) alarmism has caused the largely irrational and uneducated public to become afraid of the term. Personally, I wasn’t aware that ‘climate change’ was intrinsically ‘evil’. What is the magical temperature we wish the climate to remain at for eternity? Is it currently too hot or too cold? And if so, by how many degrees? Of course this question is truly absurd. To make matters worse, politicians have partially succeeded in perverting science to their ideology. The IPCC and other bureaucratic organizations are interested in the side of the argument that fits the narrative of CAGW, and dare not take an impartial and objective position (bite the hand that feeds you at your own peril!). Skepticism is the process of applying reason and critical thinking to determine validity. On the other hand, manipulating data and forcing results to fit a preconceived conclusion is fraudulent and unscientific. Something more befitting of politicians.

In conclusion, climate science is kowtowing to politics (government research is particularly vulnerable to this, although skepticism needs to be applied to private organizations just as tenaciously). Additionally, scientists are not immune to group think, corruption, cognitive bias, peer pressure, social ostracism, character assassination, threat of funding cuts or termination of employment, and any other social complications that may impair the scientific method. We must respond in kind with a more tenacious, skeptical, and objective mindset. Heavy scrutiny needs to be placed on climate research, particularly governmental climate science propagated by dubious organizations like the IPCC. With great fortitude and honesty, the international community of independent scientists can disprove the assumptions that the IPCC has espoused, and take politics out of science. Religion by and large has been successfully mitigated from corrupting science, it now appears politics has become the new anathema.

Microcosm of the Future: Hijacking Evolves into High-Tech?

If the Insurance industry gets behind it, then it looks like a forgone conclusion. I’d like to point out that a hijacking need not be limited to a low-tech, pistol at pilot’s head type of hijacking, it could also be unauthorized remote access of the plane.

The downside of an automated, internet centric machine, is that without the option of a manual override, you are entirely at the mercy of the software. On any given day, it may seem the only way to mitigate human error, yet, even though humans are not perfect, it is hard not to imagine a scenario where a plane, automobile, or another robotic system contracts a virus and wreaks havoc. Obviously humans have intrinsic mental/ideological viruses. Organizations such as ISIS, or other suggestible fanatics throughout history are obvious proof of this. Yet, at least humans have their own ability to somewhat filter out what is basically a crazy idea. It may take weeks to indoctrinate suggestible minds. Conversely, a computer virus could outright takeover the system. I think totally relying on automated systems is a disaster in the making. The more dependent we are on robots, software etc, the less independent we become.

Do humans require a car that drives autonomously, with obvious vulnerability to remote access?  A to B type driving from apartment to grocery store, for example, may well be a different matter for city dwellers. The busy or intoxicated person would prefer to be chauffeured around in a driver-less car I suppose, but that is not the future I desire. I am not against others having the technology, I just hope that low-tech vehicles are not outlawed and or made obsolescent. Sigh.

Has the technology we have created allowed mankind to transcend the mental shackles of our past and biology, or are we on a loop, just with more destructive technology. Not all countries are the same of course. From the U.S.A to Afghanistan, Switzerland to Fiji, we are different. Cultural differences have managed to offer visceral alternatives to each other. Tangible contrasts to compare our successes and failures. Yet we still persist to adopt ignorance over knowledge, hate over love, violence over peace. As the supposed dominant and intelligent species living in this biosphere, on this planet, it seems self evident that we need to educate, love, think. This is a path we can take, step by step, as individuals. If the oft spoken cliches; lead by example, be the change you want to see, can somehow take hold and bear fruit, then perhaps humanity has a chance, at least for a few more centuries. If we allow ignorance, hate, and violence to pull the world into chaos and destruction, we will indeed set ourselves back, and potentially never recover.

I am not interested in living a hive-mind, drone-like existence. Picture a city, with its requisite plantations of “workers”, busy making themselves obsolescent. I have no desire to be citizen number #491993-49 of sector XYZ123. To be a sedated shell living in a dystopian future, efficiently shuttled to a station where the worker performs a function until finally the job has been made obsolescent. Without some type of enlightenment permeating the masses, extricating humanity from our drug/media induced quasi-hypnosis, we will continue to bumble along this new tangent of technophilia, slowly but surely replacing ourselves, rendering ourselves less relevant, less capable, inert.

The current rotten economic, monetary, financial system has predominantly and enormously benefited a very small percentage of people. The 1% vs the 99% sounds catchy, but that is still an illusion. Within the 1%, is another 1%. This is called the 0.01%. It is totally bizarre. Of course, though, no system is perfect, no system will benefit everyone symmetrically, yet I find the problem to be systemic, by design.

The bizarre practice of manufacturing goods to be obsolescent and poorly constructed, has immensely wasted resources and driven pollution. The consumer with few choices economically, will likely confirm the behavior and purchase the cheap and poorly made item. This is the problem. We could produce a decent pair of shoes. Do we need cheap shoes from a country far away, eroding traditional workmanship, quality, jobs, intrinsic knowledge, all for the sake of getting a cheaper pair of shoes. We don’t need to make a few people in society super rich. That is neither important nor vital for society. It is inimical to society’s interests. In this system we have created, a few will manage to dominate and extract a vast amount of wealth. It is not even sustainable. Once the inequality reaches critical mass, a revolution occurs. Oppression feeds revolution. The revolution is destructive. Some of us are unhappy and desire more. It doesn’t matter how rich we become, it will never be enough. To amplify this, others must become poorer. This arrogance is destructive. We live briefly. Is our focus to be on standard of living or quality of life. Is there a trade off, or can we have both?

If the aim of the organization is to provide shareholder value (efficiency), then perhaps we will continue to seek ways to cut costs, be fraudulent, corrupt, and deny people insurance cover or medicine when they are eligible?  How about we provide goods and services with the emphasis on quality, workmanship, durability. Let profit not be the motivating factor. Of course, this can only happen with regulations. Perfection is not obtainable, but worth striving for. If an inferior plastic bag can replace a traditional bag made of flax that was once produced domestically, because it is cheaper, is that really progress? It was cheaper to buy, but it is also not biodegradable, it was not made on the island, it didn’t provide jobs, it didn’t keep the tacit knowledge local. The free market failed. Can the invisible hand produce quality and forget about shareholder value? Can a single organization? We need not satiate the insatiable greed of mankind. Profit need not factor into the price of a pair of shoes. A single organization dedicated to producing shoes at a lower cost to the environment (shoes that last 10 years instead of 6 months etc) is greatly possible. The same can be said for clothing and other textiles. Does this mean that privately owned producers will go out of business. Perhaps, or they will become competitive. The world doesn’t need endless consumption of low quality goods. This may please quarterly profit projections, but again, not environmentally sustainable. The state of the economy need not be measured by current metrics. What good is GDP growth if the masses are getting poorer and their quality of life diminishing. Jobless GDP growth is more likely. Automation. Rising unemployment. Software and robots displacing humans. This is the current trajectory. Debt. Interest payments. Tax. Inflation. Currency depreciation. Quantitative easing/debt monetization. Central bank balance sheet expansion. Collapse. Oops. Where to next? IMF, please lend out some Special Drawing Rights (XDR) fiat to restart the global economy. We want to do it all over again!

If robots and software are to continue replacing humans, we will get the extra leisure time promised to us in the textbooks, only we won’t have much money to enjoy it. Is utopia obtainable for the masses? In a perfect world, it is possible. We have the resources, the intrinsic and extrinsic knowledge, the labor required to achieve a utopian world for humanity. Idealism is a wonderful thing. Back in reality, however, capital has won. Labor has become increasingly less relevant. This is the trend.

SOCIAL ENGINEERING AND THE FUTURE

The final revolution is already upon us. We are descending into oblivion as a species. Humanity seems intent on walking down our historical paths of ignorance, violence and greed. Although our future is not entirely futile, in reality there only need be 10-20% of the population, the percentage highly suggestible and vulnerable to propaganda, to become mobilized and incite enough hate and violence to persuade the moderately suggestible and ignorant majority to welcome an ever expanding police state.

The willfully ignorant and fearful masses have passively ensured that forced medication, incarceration, and an ever widening net of poverty are what humanity has to look forward to. Do we handover our humanity to technology, do we place our faith the state? Is that how we will reap the rewards of the final revolution? Will robots take care of our old, raise our children, police our streets, fight our wars, farm our crops, pour our drinks, suck our cocks, and become the “new” slaves that hypothetically never revolt? Laughably while billions of humans live lives of frivolity? No. We are not part of the final equation. We are not needed. Not even in the form of a slave. All we have yet to do is set the final stage of our obsolescence.

GET IN THE GAME

Ideally and realistically speaking, we need to develop awareness in ourselves and in others. To slowly replace our distorted perception of reality. Less “did you see what happened on Game of Thrones”, more “did you read the analysis paper called ‘WHICH PATH TO PERSIA, OPTIONS FOR A NEW AMERICAN STRATEGY TOWARD IRAN’, written by The Saban Center for Middle East Policy and The Brookings Institution”. This is the reality I speak of. Taking interest in the “real” Game of Thrones.

This prison ship we live on is accelerating toward oblivion. It seems the worse things get, the more people retreat into cognitive dissonance. Ignoring the disease only makes it worse. Ultimately, it needs to be addressed. What will you do?

 

PS – If you disagree, please leave comment. Thanks.

CAN YOU SAY ZIRP, NIRP?

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1997-2014

US_interest2008_2014

2008-2014

The Federal funds rate has been set at 0.25% for over the past 5 years. When the current bubble bursts, the interest rate can’t go down much further and still be positive. The ECB is currently at 0.05%. Hmmm, who will win the race? The Bank of Japan is already at 0.00%. I guess it is the winner. I foresee potential for negative interest rates. This is when you pay the bank interest to look after your money, which only exists in physical form at around 2% anyways. The rest is just data stored on a computer. They don’t need to rent warehouses or have massive vaults to store cash. It doesn’t exist in that form. It’s digital now. Perhaps some deposit haircuts are around the corner. Bail-ins are supposedly the next big thing. The banks close for a bank holiday, and open up with less of your money. Sound good?  ZIRP and NIRP, they are acronyms of the hard working saving class, right?

Now lets look at the S&P 500. Has that reached nominal values higher than the last two previous bubbles? Oh good it has. The current bubble is quite ambitious. I guess now is really a great time to sell if you haven’t just entered the market.

S&P500_20141102

Perhaps the Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn’t fallen victim to the interest rates. Nope, it appears it is just as ambitious as the S&P 500. How far will it go? It will continue to rise and make us all rich right? CEO’s must be loving their executive compensation. Stock buy backs are so in right now.

DOWJONES

The NASDAQ took quite a beating when the Dotcom bubble burst. But don’t worry, it is trying hard to get back to where it once was. It’s all about market capitalization right?

NSDQ

China doesn’t really have a stock market. I think its citizens don’t trust it. Instead, they like real estate bubbles. Japan likes QE. Europe isn’t even bothering to replace its citizens anymore. Demographics have gotten ugly. The U.S prints money and lives off its exorbitant privilege to pay its bills. Nothing quite like having the worlds reserve currency. Thank you House of Saud! But the tide is turning. Gold is being sucked into a giant vortex in Asia. It stops off at Switzerland though to be processed before making its final stop in Asia. Yes, the world is about to experience another financial crisis. But when?

Look at the trend for 10 year treasury notes. They have been trending downward for sometime huh. No wonder the U.S government has been able to spend $100’s of billions on war every year. Force projection doesn’t come cheap. Still, better to destabilize the Middle East than to invest in your nations infrastructure. Actually, just print more food stamps. Go hard or go home!

10Yearbondss

Allow me to make some predictions. At least then I can gauge how accurate I was at the time of writing this blog. In a years time, so, by the 2nd of November, 2015, GMT, the next global financial crisis will have hit.

Sell sell sell!

– U.S stock markets take a tumble. S&P500 at 700, DJIA 6000, NASDAQ 1400

– US Federal funds rate. Damn, umm, take it to NIRP. Bail ins. Gotta kill the savers right!

Bull

What?

Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Water

Revolt, you obsolescent serf.

What is debt? Perhaps an imaginary number. Is money lent into existence at interest ‘negative money’. Are you familiar with ‘Impossible contract theory’. DEBT IS FICTION.

In reality, the tree either has apples or it does not. There cannot exist negative apples on the tree. This concept is pure imagination. Real apples have weight. Imaginary apples do not.

There is no need to borrow at interest from investors. The monetary supply of a nation can not be left up to the banks to inflate by ultra profitable fractional reserve banking, or by even more hilarious means, loans out of no reserves at all. Roughly 2% of money exists in physical form. Governments do not need to issue bonds to cover fiscal short falls. Negative money creates interest payments. Debt equals wealth extraction. A nation can create its own national currency in the volume it sees fit. Inflation is generally created when there is too much money chasing too fewer goods, or when the price of inputs go up. Inflation is already created by fractional reserve banking. Careful decisions must be made no matter what. Simply issuing limitless amounts of money will cause harm obviously, like issuing too little. Both have consequences. The current system with its boom and bust cycles and central banking for the bankers seems to have only really benefited the owners of capital. Average Joe has never been poorer. Food stamp anyone.

The monetary supply of a nation is a common good. It is their to facilitate commercial activity. People need work. When they have money, they can spend it. Most people want their children to have a good education. Do they need to go into massive debt even before they get their first real job? What type of lunacy is this? Get into DEBT to find a low paying job in the service economy along with everyone else (thanks manufacturing offshoring and robotization), rack up lots of payments for things you can’t afford. Get a mortgage. Remain a debt slave and service your debt. Too busy servicing debt to take heed that the system is gamed for you to fail. WTF people! I hope you enjoy serfdom. I guess the whole point of issuing credit cards and GE money shopping cards is so people can continue to buy their shit because less and less people have jobs.

When there is a great lack of money in the system, people simply do not have money to buy stuff. The economy grinds to a halt. Do they not still have their labor to sell. It is not that the soil has ceased to be fertile, or that the sun has refused to shine. The farmers can produce, but who can they sell to if there is no money in the hands of the people? Bill Gates can’t eat 1,000,000 cheeseburgers a day no matter how rich he is.

Why do these usurious banks have such power to inflate or deflate the supply of money in circulation? Oh how they love to privatize the gains and externalize the costs.

Look at economies like the United States of America or the European Union, and their central banking. What is happening in the U.S stock market? How many people are now on food stamps? When the next crisis hits and the greedy class of ultra wealthy cash out of their stocks leaving pensions funds and other idiots holding the losses and put their wealth into a new asset classes, what will the poor fucks at the bottom do without jobs and houses?

What retarded system is in place where there is no money for national parks, but there is always money available for war? The debt clock keeps rising, the banks are allowed to operate like gods, the politicians read their lines and barely ever step out of line. The people can never be poor enough, the ultra rich are never rich enough to satiate their greed. The middle class of debt slaves are too busy to revolt. The unemployed too ignorant. The wealthy are too comfortable to protest. Only when they suffer will they take interest.

The next financial crisis will be more severe than the last. All that has happened since the last crisis is more alcohol has been consumed to keep the party going. Major economies can’t cut interest rates any further. It has done nothing but inflate the asset classes of the rich. There is no recovery in sight.

If the people can’t decide what is best for their country, and unite against the common evil, then they will be broken one class at a time. If the bottom 80-90% of the people who are closer to being poor than rich can’t unite and stand together, then the top 10% are not gonna help you since they are way too rich to step out of their comfort zone. And even then, the top 1% have vastly more wealth comparatively than the top 10%. And even further, the top 10% of the 1% have vastly more money compartively than the bottom 90% of the 1%.

Its been a good rort, but it needs to stop. I don’t think we can count on the ultra rich to make the changes necessary. It’s gotta be the poor huddled masses demanding change before they disappear down a FEMA camp. I guess if you are too despondant and distracted to stand up for yourself and your country, then maybe you are not worthy of freedom. Perhaps you are a serf who deserves nothing more…

Watch this fucking clip

Revolt debt slave. Spread the message. Link it, share it, post it, criticize it, just do something other than briefly skim reading it!!!