Prediction vs Outcome: Market vs Polling Aggregation


The picture above represents what the market believes to be the outcome for March 15.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, all by a strong margin. The market has chosen Cruz for Missouri, and Kasich for Ohio.

rcp avg

The picture above represents what the polling mechanisms have aggregated.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, North Carolina, and probably Illinois. Again, Kasich for Ohio, but data is not sufficient to make a call on Missouri.

The Outcome

Assuming that the electronic voting platforms are functioning accurately, and not shaving votes from Donald Trump, then both sets of data suggest that:

Donald Trump ‘ought’ to win Florida and North Carolina by a strong margin. There is a maximum of 171 delegates available. Florida is winner-take-all, North Carolina is proportional. The data is not as strong on Illinois, however, he will likely win, and net a potential maximum of 69 delegates. Missouri is unknown, with a favoring of Cruz by the market. Delegates allocate WTA if a 50% threshold is obtained. Otherwise 5 delegates per district and 9 for the leader. 52 delegates are available. Finally, Kasich is favored to win Ohio, with a maximum potential of 66 delegates available.


I believe Donald will be the main benefactor from today’s events, however, a clean sweep is looking unlikely, therefore, the potential for a brokered convention is looking very likely. If this is the case, then the Republican National Committee will  probably re-write the rules , and steal the election from Trump. Trump needs to be the victor of all 5 states, and take every single delegate. If this were to happen, then Donald would certainly become the Republican nominee for the general election, whether the establishment likes it or not.

Donald 3, Kasich 1, Cruz 1. Although I’m very interested to discover how the delegates will be allocated, and if the winner truly takes all. This is it folks! Standby for action!

UPDATE: Kasich wins Ohio, Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Illinois.

Glass-Steagall Act: Panacea or Just a Single Piece of the Puzzle?

The U.S. and its promissory notes of today are of ghostly contrast to their former utility; a certificate entitling the bearer to gold. Banking certainly revolutionized transactions, and promissory notes of the past did allow the bearers to make payment without transporting around their gold, however, once America divorced the certificate from entitling the bearer to gold, these promissory notes were only worth the confidence that people had in them. Goodbye intrinsic value.

According to textbooks and most professors, central banks inflate the money supply by the money multiplier theory, although I believe the ‘credit creation theory’ is more accurate (the public somewhat still believes in financial intermediation theory, although this is not a surprise as the education system leaves much to be desired in these matters). This chicanery has allowed a privileged few to benefit from the manipulation of the gold price, LIBOR, FOREX, securities, and given birth to the odious and colossal derivatives leviathan. Perhaps this issue deserves some scrutiny? Why do I doubt Bernie Sanders will sincerely take on the money men? Perhaps Andrew Jackson could shed some light on this?

Problems? A class of privileged, rent-seeking parasites that have disproportionate influence over legislation. Central banking and misguided neo-Keynesian economic theories together responsible for pushing America into an abyss of wage stagnation, debt, misadventure, and lost productivity. So, where to now in regard to the federal funds rate? Languishing at 0-0.25 upper bound, there is very little room for monetary stimulus if another crisis were to hit. Perhaps it’s time to bail in the chosen banks with other peoples money? The enormous imbalances created by loose monetary policy, the taxpayer funded bail outs of the insolvent and fraudulent banking establishment, the over reliance on borrowing by issuance of debt securities and debt monetization. The Federal reserve balance sheet of roughly 4.5 trillion dollars, further quantitative easing looking imminent, disingenuous unemployment and inflation statistics. How will Bernie Sanders fix this utter nightmare? Tax increases and the reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act? If you open your door, you may hear my laughter echoing from the other side of the planet?

The problem facing America is beyond the Democrat-Republican voting paradigm. The obsession with political correctness and partisanship has restricted public discourse, and left the intelligentsia divided and cowardly. An unknown portion of them live in fear of character assassination, social ostracism, termination of employment, if they dare stray from the sanctioned and popular narrative propagated in the media, popular culture, universities, and government. The dumb majority are not capable of rational thought, and are defenseless against the fallacious rhetoric of their leaders. Is Bernie Sanders really seeking change, or merely rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic?

Your three branches of government are compromised. They are concerned solely with their career, and their contemporaries. Is it any wonder there are so many parasites sucking the life blood out of the USA? It is amazing it hasn’t collapsed already. I put this down to having the global reserve currency privilege, an expanding central bank balance sheet, and a population of despondent, docile, apathetic, indifferent, corrupt, celebrity worshiping imbeciles, still unaware of the crisis they are in. If people are not interested in educating themselves, if they refrain from challenging their abilities to critically think and analyze the fallacious rhetoric of their democratically elected leaders, then parasitic rent-seeking elites will continue to wield disproportionate influence on legislation, and finance both sides. Imagine if Greece had the world reserve currency and their own central bank free to expand its balance sheet like the Federal Reserve does?

How are these S&P500 companies borrowing the credit to buy back their stocks? Has it anything to do with the Federal Reserve and its interest rates? Like the PBOC in China, the central banks are fighting the market to keep the ponzi scheme afloat. The BOJ is the main purchaser of Japanese treasuries. The FED may purchase debt securities, mortgage backed securities, it may participate in the naked shorting of the gold futures via proxies in JPM. Is anyone still in denial that we have allowed financial cartels to dominate and enact such ruinous policies. We are being extracted. Power and control isn’t Republican or Democrat, it is above politics.

Since the dumb majority are content to distract themselves with television, sport, alcohol, or whatever, and the intelligentsia have lost their balls in the guillotine of political correctness, is it wrong that I have decided to take pleasure from watching the show come crashing down, and the pursuant nightmare that will follow? Humans aren’t that great at identifying slow-moving disasters, it needs to be fast moving and direct.

Which populist demagogue will be elected next?