Brokered Conventions and the RNC

Delegate Allocation

As of March 14th, 2016, the majority of Republican delegates will be allocated in ‘winner-take-all’ fashion. Prior to this date, the majority were allocated in a proportional system (however, state laws do vary). This will be advantageous for the front-runners, namely, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Rule 40(b)

A candidate must have the support of a majority of delegates from eight different states in order to win the nomination. As of March 7th, Donald Trump has five states with majority delegate support, Ted Cruz has three.

Can Trump take Florida and Ohio?

The republican establishment is hell-bent on stopping the ‘Trump-train’. While anti-Trump advertising is on full-throttle, I’m unsure what effect it is having on people already tired of pre-packaged, establishment candidates. Perhaps the electronic voting system has been programmed to shave votes off Trump. I guess that is another matter. For Trump, a victory in Florida and Ohio would make his bid for nomination virtually guaranteed. A win in Florida is likely, and I’d be seriously dubious if he were to lose that state to Rubio. Ohio is looking more difficult, and Kasich may win his home state. Nevertheless, after March 14th, providing his winning momentum continues, Trump should start amassing delegates in short order. It will be a tight race, and ultimately a brokered convention is possible.

Will Trump score a home-run on March 15th?

Here is how the market believes it will go down on



The Race to the Delegate Finish Line

To anyone following the Republican primaries, it is obvious that the 1,237 delegate threshold is looking out of reach to every candidate, except Donald Trump. That said, it is not a given that he will reach the threshold. Additionally, by June 7th, Trump will have undoubtedly exceeded the eight state majority delegate support requirement (rule 40b) to be eligible for nomination. However, Ted Cruz may have reached the threshold too. In this case, a brokered convention would take place, unless the Republican National Committee changes the rules before June 7th. All things considered equal, assuming the RNC don’t make any changes, a Donald Trump and Ted Cruz delegate showdown is possible. Hell, Kasich may still be running. Anyway, if delegates favor Cruz, even if Donald has the majority of popular votes, Cruz would take the nomination for the Republicans. In this scenario, Donald could run as an independent.






If Clinton is the next POTUS, or Sanders for that matter, the U.S.A will have been dealt another massive blow. Honestly, Rubio and Cruz don’t inspire me either.

Change is so strongly desired. But what kind of change? Obama’s “Hope” campaign got him elected, twice, unbelievably, but the charming Obama illusion has substantially diminished. I’m almost certain Sanders would be a financial hazard. He would likely rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic. In my opinion, the great deleveraging of the 21st century is ultimately unstoppable. The house of cards will collapse, but under which administration? To be perfectly frank, why the hell would one want a fucking socialist as the next POTUS, and in such financially unstable times? To me, Trump is looking like the only viable outsider not beholden to an entrenched oligarchy.

The financials of the U.S are horrible. Both the Republicans and Democrats have been co-opted, and both have kicked the can down the road. An administration will inherit an epic financial meltdown eventually. I’d choose Trump to preside over a financial catastrophe over Sanders everyday of the year. Sanders is a tax and spend guy. He might talk a good game to the impressionable youth, but he will not improve the United States balance sheet. He will expand debt levels. He is a wealth distributor, not a wealth creator. Imagine student loans under a Sanders administration! Below is a snapshot of student loan expansion under the Obama administration.

INTERESTING FACT: Student loans are considered an asset.


Obama administration expanding government assets. Wait! Assets?

That’s right. It is considered an asset. Here is a link to the Government Accountability Office and an evaluation of the US GOV asset position.


Snapshots of the Democratic and Republican nomination delegate count as of 29/2/16

It appears Hillary has the establishment Democratic super-delegate support by a landslide.


Trump off to an impressive start.

A small class of parasitical, rent-seeking oligarchs, wield immense influence upon these activities. Is there a branch of government that hasn’t been co-opted? Good luck, America! Will the despondent, apathetic, indifferent, docile masses finally stand up to the bloated, venal, incoherent bureaucrats that have extracted them so insidiously over the decades, or will a fucking Hillary Clinton type be the next face for the next phase of American destruction?

Finally, here is a link to an inspiring rant by Dylan Radigan on MSNBC

Dylan Radigan – “There is not a single politician who has stood up to deal with this!” Until now. His name is Donald Trump. Vote for him.


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