Prediction vs Outcome: Market vs Polling Aggregation


The picture above represents what the market believes to be the outcome for March 15.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, all by a strong margin. The market has chosen Cruz for Missouri, and Kasich for Ohio.

rcp avg

The picture above represents what the polling mechanisms have aggregated.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, North Carolina, and probably Illinois. Again, Kasich for Ohio, but data is not sufficient to make a call on Missouri.

The Outcome

Assuming that the electronic voting platforms are functioning accurately, and not shaving votes from Donald Trump, then both sets of data suggest that:

Donald Trump ‘ought’ to win Florida and North Carolina by a strong margin. There is a maximum of 171 delegates available. Florida is winner-take-all, North Carolina is proportional. The data is not as strong on Illinois, however, he will likely win, and net a potential maximum of 69 delegates. Missouri is unknown, with a favoring of Cruz by the market. Delegates allocate WTA if a 50% threshold is obtained. Otherwise 5 delegates per district and 9 for the leader. 52 delegates are available. Finally, Kasich is favored to win Ohio, with a maximum potential of 66 delegates available.


I believe Donald will be the main benefactor from today’s events, however, a clean sweep is looking unlikely, therefore, the potential for a brokered convention is looking very likely. If this is the case, then the Republican National Committee will  probably re-write the rules , and steal the election from Trump. Trump needs to be the victor of all 5 states, and take every single delegate. If this were to happen, then Donald would certainly become the Republican nominee for the general election, whether the establishment likes it or not.

Donald 3, Kasich 1, Cruz 1. Although I’m very interested to discover how the delegates will be allocated, and if the winner truly takes all. This is it folks! Standby for action!

UPDATE: Kasich wins Ohio, Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Illinois.


Dirty Tricks and Politics

The Duplicitous Democrats

Hillary R. Clinton is the Democratic front-runner, preferred candidate for the super-delegates, and apparently the top choice among older women, especially black women. Who would of thought? She also used her home computer to conduct government business as the Secretary of State. It might be of interest to note that 22 of the 2,115 emails that were retroactively classified, are Top Secret. Apparently this doesn’t matter if you are an older woman. She still has a vagina, she is still old, and that resonates with you. She cares about the minorities. She cares about the disenfranchised, right? Make sure you vote for Hillary because she is a woman and a mother!

Bernie Sanders, the dinosaur-activist, hell-bent on wealth redistribution and appealing to the ‘hopeless-generation’. He’ll makes things ‘fair’ again! He’ll increase taxes on those evil 1%, make ‘free’ education, virtually double the minimum wage, enforce pay parity for women, force employers to give more holidays etc. He loves taxes, wealth and income distribution, and above all, debt. He’ll expand the money supply, bankrupt businesses, create ‘free’ stuff, and step by step, make everybody equal. Equally poor, equally rich, hell it doesn’t matter anymore. Feeling the Bern!

The Repugnant Republicans

Marco Rubio, the quintessential Republican establishment puppet. There isn’t a hoop he won’t jump through. Whether or not he was a raging homosexual in college, apparently doesn’t matter to the conservative party. They will look beyond his checkered past, so long as he keeps Trump from winning. Although, how long Rubio will stay in the race will probably depend on him winning his home state of Florida.

Ted Cruz, the smooth talking Texan, fiercely fighting to be the next POTUS. He’s been waiting for power and control, and he’s coming second. Who knows what Cruz would accomplish as the next POTUS. I’m assuming more of the same. No real change. Nothing substantial. I can’t imagine Goldman Sachs fearing the election of Cruz.

Donald Trump, the fearless alpha-male, is upsetting the establishment with his ‘say-whatever-I-want’ style of debate. The self-funding candidate, doesn’t need establishment money and therefore is not beholden to them. Running off pure charisma and his brash demeanor, the Donald is looking to do what no other candidate is bringing to the party. Structural change to the U.S economy! Change, but not the Bernie ‘free-stuff-for-everyone-expand-money-supply-indefinitely’ Sanders, type of change. No, sir! Donald actually has intrinsic knowledge of running a business, trade, tax loopholes, and negotiations. Donald is not perfect, however, I have confidence in him far in excess of the other outsider, Bernie Sanders.  Here is a link to the tax reform Donald has in mind.


  1. Voter shaving and other dirty tricks
  2. Hillary winning the Democratic nomination
  3. A brokered convention sidelining Donald Trump, promoting Ted Cruz for Republican nomination
  4. Hillary wins the general election and becomes the next POTUS

All four of the above are bad, although, the brokered convention ruling out Donald J. Trump, and Hillary winning the general election is the final piece of straw on the camel’s back. We should make sure these terrible outcomes don’t happen.

If you are a Bernie Sanders supporter, and he loses the Democratic nomination, make sure you vote Trump. If you are a Rubio supporter, and he quits the race, vote Trump.

America is in a very precarious financial situation. The economy is dilapidated. It is being extracted by trade, tax, monetary policy, and military misadventures. It needs to stop. It is time to set aside petty differences on minor issues, and join forces against the ‘evil-empire’, rally alongside Donald Trump, and fight the good fight!






If Clinton is the next POTUS, or Sanders for that matter, the U.S.A will have been dealt another massive blow. Honestly, Rubio and Cruz don’t inspire me either.

Change is so strongly desired. But what kind of change? Obama’s “Hope” campaign got him elected, twice, unbelievably, but the charming Obama illusion has substantially diminished. I’m almost certain Sanders would be a financial hazard. He would likely rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic. In my opinion, the great deleveraging of the 21st century is ultimately unstoppable. The house of cards will collapse, but under which administration? To be perfectly frank, why the hell would one want a fucking socialist as the next POTUS, and in such financially unstable times? To me, Trump is looking like the only viable outsider not beholden to an entrenched oligarchy.

The financials of the U.S are horrible. Both the Republicans and Democrats have been co-opted, and both have kicked the can down the road. An administration will inherit an epic financial meltdown eventually. I’d choose Trump to preside over a financial catastrophe over Sanders everyday of the year. Sanders is a tax and spend guy. He might talk a good game to the impressionable youth, but he will not improve the United States balance sheet. He will expand debt levels. He is a wealth distributor, not a wealth creator. Imagine student loans under a Sanders administration! Below is a snapshot of student loan expansion under the Obama administration.

INTERESTING FACT: Student loans are considered an asset.


Obama administration expanding government assets. Wait! Assets?

That’s right. It is considered an asset. Here is a link to the Government Accountability Office and an evaluation of the US GOV asset position.


Snapshots of the Democratic and Republican nomination delegate count as of 29/2/16

It appears Hillary has the establishment Democratic super-delegate support by a landslide.


Trump off to an impressive start.

A small class of parasitical, rent-seeking oligarchs, wield immense influence upon these activities. Is there a branch of government that hasn’t been co-opted? Good luck, America! Will the despondent, apathetic, indifferent, docile masses finally stand up to the bloated, venal, incoherent bureaucrats that have extracted them so insidiously over the decades, or will a fucking Hillary Clinton type be the next face for the next phase of American destruction?

Finally, here is a link to an inspiring rant by Dylan Radigan on MSNBC

Dylan Radigan – “There is not a single politician who has stood up to deal with this!” Until now. His name is Donald Trump. Vote for him.


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