Prediction vs Outcome: Market vs Polling Aggregation

predictit

The picture above represents what the market believes to be the outcome for March 15.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, all by a strong margin. The market has chosen Cruz for Missouri, and Kasich for Ohio.

rcp avg

The picture above represents what the polling mechanisms have aggregated.

Donald ‘ought’ to win Florida, North Carolina, and probably Illinois. Again, Kasich for Ohio, but data is not sufficient to make a call on Missouri.

The Outcome

Assuming that the electronic voting platforms are functioning accurately, and not shaving votes from Donald Trump, then both sets of data suggest that:

Donald Trump ‘ought’ to win Florida and North Carolina by a strong margin. There is a maximum of 171 delegates available. Florida is winner-take-all, North Carolina is proportional. The data is not as strong on Illinois, however, he will likely win, and net a potential maximum of 69 delegates. Missouri is unknown, with a favoring of Cruz by the market. Delegates allocate WTA if a 50% threshold is obtained. Otherwise 5 delegates per district and 9 for the leader. 52 delegates are available. Finally, Kasich is favored to win Ohio, with a maximum potential of 66 delegates available.

delegates.jpg

I believe Donald will be the main benefactor from today’s events, however, a clean sweep is looking unlikely, therefore, the potential for a brokered convention is looking very likely. If this is the case, then the Republican National Committee will  probably re-write the rules , and steal the election from Trump. Trump needs to be the victor of all 5 states, and take every single delegate. If this were to happen, then Donald would certainly become the Republican nominee for the general election, whether the establishment likes it or not.

Donald 3, Kasich 1, Cruz 1. Although I’m very interested to discover how the delegates will be allocated, and if the winner truly takes all. This is it folks! Standby for action!

UPDATE: Kasich wins Ohio, Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Illinois.

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